Buying guide
OCR predictions for 2026 & 2027
What’s the Reserve Bank's next move?
AI summary
Following the November 2025 cut, the Reserve Bank and major bank economists agree the Official Cash Rate (OCR) has likely bottomed out around 2.25%. The consensus forecast is for a stable OCR through 2026, with gradual increases beginning in 2027.
This suggests mortgage interest rates are also at or near their lows. Homeowners may want to consider fixing for longer terms (2+ years) or splitting their mortgage across several terms to manage risk and secure current rates.
| % | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March | March | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.34 | 2.34 | 2.73 | 2.73 |
| June | June | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.45 | 2.45 | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| Sep | Sep | 2.23 | 2.23 | 2.55 | 2.55 | 2.87 | 2.87 |
| Dec | Dec | 2.28 | 2.28 | 2.65 | 2.65 | 2.9 | 2.9 |
We could be at the bottom of the cycle
As always, next moves depend on the data
| Forecaster | March 2026 | June 2026 | September 2026 | December 2026 | March 2027 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANZ | ANZ | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.50 | 2.50 |
| Kiwibank | Kiwibank | 2.20 | 2.20 | 2.15 | 2.15 | 2.20 | 2.20 | 2.50 | 2.50 | - | - |
| Westpac | Westpac | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | - | - |
| ASB | ASB | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.50 | 2.50 |
| BNZ | BNZ | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2,25 | 2,25 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.50 | 2.50 |
Kiwibank
ANZ
BNZ
Westpac
ASB
OCR predictions NZ – our summary
The OCR could directly affect your level of disposable income.
What do NZ OCR predictions mean for interest rates?
How long should I fix my mortgage?
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