Feature article
2025 ended on a soft note but values should rise in 2026
Looking toward this year in property.
The year has wrapped up quietly for the property market, with the Cotality Home Value Index for December showing another soft result. National values dipped by -0.2% to end the year.
Kelvin Davidson, Chief Property Economist at Cotality, unpacks the year that was and looks ahead to what 2026 holds for homeowners and buyers.
The numbers at a glance
The New Zealand median value now sits at $808,430. This is -17.6% below the market peak in early 2022, and down -1.0% compared to December 2024.
While the national picture was soft, the main centres showed a clear split in performance during December:
- Falling: Hamilton (-0.7%), Auckland (-0.6%), and wider Wellington (-0.4%).
- Rising: Tauranga (+0.5%), Dunedin (+0.5%), and Christchurch (+0.2%).
Outside the major cities, provincial markets remained more resilient. "The Southland Region in particular remains buoyant, with property values consistently reaching new record highs each month," notes Kelvin. "Queenstown and parts of Canterbury are other pockets of strength."
A "broadly flat" 2025
Although the data technically shows a -1.0% fall for the 2025 calendar year, Kelvin views the year as steady.
"I’d tend to call it broadly flat – fitting with the idea of ‘conflicting forces’," he explains. "Lower mortgage rates exerted an upwards influence on property values in 2025, but other factors such as elevated listings and a weak economy pushed the other way."
He also points to a structural shift in supply. "The physical stock of dwellings in NZ has risen relative to our overall population in recent years, which has also restrained values and helped affordability."
The outlook for 2026
Looking forward, Kelvin doesn't anticipate a sudden snap back to a "seller's market," but he does see the tide turning.
"With the economy growing again, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see property values edge higher in 2026," he says. His forecast? "Roughly 5% growth in national median values in 2026."
However, there will be plenty of variables to keep an eye on, including the upcoming election, the ongoing impact of Debt-to-Income (DTI) restrictions, and whether borrowers begin shifting back to longer-term fixed rates.
Author
Chief Property Economist, Cotality - cotality.com Kelvin joined Cotality (previously CoreLogic) in March 2018. He brings with him a wealth of experience, having spent 15 years working largely in private sector economic consultancies in both New Zealand and the UK.
In his role with Cotality, Kelvin’s focus is on keeping up to date with what’s going on in the property market and continually finding different ways for viewing and interpreting it. Kelvin’s economics background means that he knows his way around a spreadsheet, but more importantly he always puts more emphasis on providing the key insights and telling a story.
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