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Interest rates just hit a fresh low. Could we see a rate starting with 3 in by the new year?

Banks are vying for our business by advertising lower rates.

Damien Venuto
Last updated: 30 October 2025 | 4 min read
AI

AI summary

Intense competition in a slow housing market is driving banks like TSB to offer lower fixed mortgage rates. Banks are pricing in expected Official Cash Rate (OCR) cuts from the Reserve Bank, causing the current drop.

While economists believe we are nearing the bottom of the rate cycle, a rate starting with '3' is considered unlikely this year. A promotional 3.99% rate is a slight possibility but would require strong signals of more cuts from the Reserve Bank.

Competition heats up

Economist Cameron Bagrie believes we’re nearing the trough in the cycle

Why are rates dropping now?

Lock now, or wait for lower rates?

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Damien Venuto Damien Venuto
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